Early Election Call and Opposition Merger Shake Up Japanese Politics

PM Takaichi calls early election for late January while opposition parties CDP and Komeito merge into Centrist Reform Alliance. Budget delays possible but provisional measures planned.

Key Points

  • Lower house dissolves after January 23; election expected in late January 2026.
  • CDP and Komeito merged into new Centrist Reform Alliance opposition party.
  • Provisional budget planned to prevent government service disruptions during election period.
  • Former PM Suga and Communist leader Shii retiring from politics this election.
Japan's political landscape is undergoing dramatic transformation as Prime Minister Takaichi prepares to dissolve the House of Representatives for an early election, while two major opposition parties merge and veteran politicians announce their retirement. These developments will significantly impact governance and policy-making in the coming months. According to NHK, Prime Minister Takaichi has informed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) of her intention to dissolve the lower house early in the ordinary Diet session, which convenes on January 23. The Prime Minister is scheduled to hold a press conference on January 19 to explain her rationale for calling an early election, reportedly to seek public approval for the coalition framework and policy direction. In a surprising political realignment, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and Komeito have merged to form a new opposition party called the "Centrist Reform Alliance" (Chūdō Kaikaku Rengō). CDP leader Noda and Komeito leader Saito jointly announced the new party name at a press conference on January 16, according to NHK reports. The newly formed alliance is rushing to establish basic policies and field official candidates ahead of the anticipated election. The LDP has criticized the opposition merger as merely an "election mutual aid society," suggesting it lacks substantive policy foundations. However, some LDP sources reportedly indicated that Prime Minister Takaichi was aware of the CDP-Komeito merger plans before announcing the dissolution, according to Livedoor News. Ishin no Kai, now part of the ruling coalition, has set ambitious targets for the upcoming election. Co-leader Fujita announced that the party aims to maintain its coalition majority while independently securing at least 38 seats—the number won in the previous election. Simultaneously, Osaka Governor Yoshimura and Osaka Mayor Yokoyama announced they would resign to run in recall elections, seeking public mandate for the "Osaka Metropolis Plan" (Osaka-to構想), though this move has generated internal party debate. The political upheaval includes significant retirements that will reshape Japan's legislative landscape. Communist Party Chairman Shii Kazuo, 71, announced he would not run in the next election, ending a long political career. More notably, former Prime Minister Suga has decided to retire from politics and will not seek re-election, according to NHK. He plans to formally announce his retirement after informing local supporters. For foreign residents, these political changes carry practical implications. LDP Secretary-General Suzuki acknowledged that the early dissolution makes it difficult to pass the fiscal year budget by the April 1 deadline. To prevent disruption to public services and daily life, the government plans to compile a provisional budget, according to NHK reports. This ensures continuity in government operations, including services that expats regularly use such as immigration processing, healthcare administration, and municipal services. The election timing has raised concerns, as it falls during winter and university entrance exam season. Local election boards across Japan are rapidly preparing for the vote, though the compressed timeline presents logistical challenges, NHK reported. While foreign residents cannot vote in national elections, the outcome will determine which coalition controls the government and sets policy priorities affecting everyone in Japan. Key areas likely to be impacted include economic policy, social welfare programs, immigration regulations, and Japan's international relationships—all of which directly affect the expat community. The election campaign is expected to focus on coalition governance legitimacy, economic recovery measures, and competing visions for Japan's future. As the political landscape reorganizes, expats should monitor developments closely, particularly regarding budget implementation and any policy changes the new government might introduce after the election. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining Japan's political direction for the next several years, with implications extending well beyond the election itself.