Japan's government has released updated damage projections for a major earthquake directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area, marking the first comprehensive revision in 12 years. According to NHK, the new estimates paint a sobering picture: up to 18,000 deaths, 400,000 destroyed buildings, and economic losses reaching approximately 83 trillion yen (roughly $550 billion USD). For the approximately 2.9 million foreign residents living in Japan—many concentrated in the capital region—these projections underscore the critical importance of earthquake preparedness. The updated assessment comes as government experts refine their understanding of seismic risks and building vulnerabilities in one of the world's most densely populated urban areas. The scenario examined by the national review committee envisions a magnitude 7-class earthquake striking directly under central Tokyo. This type of event, known as a "shuto chokka jishin" or capital direct-hit earthquake, would generate intense shaking across the metropolitan area. The damage estimates reflect worst-case scenarios based on current population density, building stock, and infrastructure conditions. According to the government's analysis reported by NHK, the death toll could reach 18,000 in the most severe circumstances, while building damage would be catastrophic—with up to 400,000 structures either completely destroyed or consumed by fires. The economic impact of 83 trillion yen would represent a significant portion of Japan's GDP, affecting employment, housing, and daily life for years following such a disaster. These figures represent updated calculations that account for changes over the past dozen years, including improvements in building codes, advances in earthquake-resistant construction, and shifts in population distribution. However, they also reflect the continued vulnerability of aging structures and the challenges of protecting such a densely populated region. For foreign residents, the new estimates serve as an important reminder to review personal preparedness measures. The Tokyo metropolitan government and national authorities have long emphasized that individual preparation is essential for surviving and recovering from major earthquakes. This includes securing heavy furniture, maintaining emergency supplies, and knowing evacuation routes. The Japanese government has announced plans to revise its basic disaster preparedness plan in response to these new projections. According to NHK, authorities will establish updated mitigation targets and develop enhanced disaster countermeasures aimed at reducing potential casualties and damage. These revisions will likely include both structural measures—such as accelerating building retrofits—and non-structural approaches like improving early warning systems and evacuation procedures. Expats should be aware that detailed municipality-level seismic intensity projections have been published alongside the overall damage estimates. NHK reports that residents can now access specific information about expected shaking levels in their local areas, allowing for more targeted preparation. This granular data helps individuals understand their specific risk profile based on factors like soil conditions, building age, and proximity to fault lines. The timing of this announcement reflects ongoing concerns about earthquake preparedness in Japan, where major seismic events remain an ever-present threat. While the country has made significant strides in earthquake engineering and disaster response capabilities, the concentration of population and critical infrastructure in the Tokyo region creates unique vulnerabilities. For those living in the capital area, experts recommend taking concrete steps now: securing emergency food and water for at least three days, identifying multiple evacuation routes, registering for emergency alert systems available in multiple languages, and participating in local disaster drills. Many municipalities offer preparedness information specifically for foreign residents, often available in English and other languages. The 12-year gap since the last major assessment means these new projections incorporate lessons learned from recent earthquakes, including the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent events. As Japan continues refining its disaster preparedness strategies, foreign residents should stay informed through official channels and ensure their own readiness for potential emergencies.