Yen Volatility Intensifies as US Treasury Rules Out Market Intervention

The yen fluctuated sharply on January 28, ranging from 152 to 154 per dollar, as US Treasury Secretary Bessent denied market intervention while President Trump's comments initially suggested dollar weakness.

Key Points

  • Yen weakened to 154 per dollar after US Treasury denied intervention.
  • Earlier Tokyo trading saw yen strengthen to 152 per dollar range.
  • Two-yen daily swing significantly impacts expat international money transfers and purchasing power.
  • Consider currency hedging strategies during this period of heightened exchange rate volatility.
Foreign residents in Japan witnessed significant currency fluctuations on January 28, 2026, as the yen swung dramatically against the dollar following statements from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and comments from President Donald Trump. The volatility underscores the uncertain financial environment expats must navigate when managing cross-border finances. According to NHK, the yen weakened sharply in New York trading, temporarily falling to the 154 yen per dollar level after Secretary Bessent explicitly denied that the United States was intervening in foreign exchange markets to support the yen. When asked directly by American media whether the US was buying yen to prop up its value, Bessent categorically rejected the notion, sending a clear signal that Japan should not expect American assistance in stabilizing its currency. However, Bessent notably avoided commenting on whether authorities were conducting "rate checks"—a practice where officials contact currency dealers at banks to inquire about exchange rates. While not intervention itself, rate checking is often interpreted as a warning signal that authorities are monitoring the market and may be preparing to act, making currency traders more cautious about pushing exchange rates to extreme levels. The day's trading demonstrated how quickly sentiment can shift in currency markets. Earlier in Tokyo trading sessions, the yen had actually strengthened significantly, temporarily reaching the 152 yen per dollar range, according to NHK. This appreciation occurred after President Trump made comments that markets interpreted as accepting a weaker dollar, prompting traders to sell dollars and buy yen. The approximately two-yen swing between Tokyo and New York trading sessions—from 152 yen per dollar to 154 yen per dollar—illustrates the heightened volatility that expats must contend with when conducting financial transactions. For foreign residents sending money overseas, receiving income from abroad, or planning international travel, such rapid fluctuations can significantly impact purchasing power within a single day. The practical implications for expats are substantial. Those receiving salaries in yen but supporting families abroad or maintaining financial obligations in their home countries face increased uncertainty about the real value of their earnings. A weaker yen means Japanese salaries convert to fewer dollars, euros, or pounds, effectively reducing purchasing power for international expenses. Conversely, expats receiving income from overseas in foreign currencies benefit when the yen weakens, as their foreign earnings convert to more yen. The currency movements also affect everyday financial decisions. Major purchases requiring foreign currency—such as international school tuition often denominated in dollars, overseas property payments, or significant online purchases from foreign retailers—become more expensive as the yen weakens. Travel budgets for trips outside Japan similarly face pressure when the yen declines. Financial experts typically advise expats to consider currency hedging strategies during periods of heightened volatility. This might include timing larger international transfers strategically, using forward contracts to lock in exchange rates for planned future transactions, or maintaining diversified currency holdings rather than converting all funds immediately. The situation also highlights Japan's limited options for currency stabilization without international cooperation. While Japanese authorities could theoretically intervene unilaterally by selling foreign currency reserves to buy yen, such actions are more effective when coordinated with other major economies. Bessent's denial of US involvement suggests Japan may need to rely primarily on its own resources if it chooses to support the yen. For expats in Japan, the key lesson is that currency volatility appears likely to persist given the uncertain policy environment under the Trump administration and Japan's ongoing economic challenges. Monitoring exchange rates regularly, understanding personal exposure to currency risk, and consulting with financial advisors about appropriate hedging strategies have become increasingly important aspects of financial planning for foreign residents navigating Japan's economic landscape.